By Richard Mesic Thomas Hamilton, RAND
Easy online game thought is used to narrate U.S. Air strength operations to their likey results on enemy habit.
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Extra info for A Simple Game-Theoretic Approach to Suppression of Enemy Defenses and Other Time Critical Target Analyses
The value of the struck targets is so high that Red should ﬁre 71 percent of the time, but this result applies only to the last engagement of the conﬂict. When we work out the numbers, we ﬁnd that until the last 20 engagements of the conﬂict Red should ﬁre less than 10 percent of the time. The effect of the time horizon is strong. It forces Red to a conservative ﬁring doctrine, even when the value of the targets is so high that Red would ﬁre aggressively in a short war. , strike targets, down aircraft, or kill SAMs.
By “inﬂight,” we mean in the boost phase, in midcourse, or in the terminal phase. This integrated active defense parameter is included in our counterforce analyses because it can affect the optimal allocations of air assets to counterforce or to strike missions. 25 0 =1 =5 Vdamage = 10 Note: Outcomes reflect value from the Blue point of view. Red is assumed to have exactly opposite MoEs. 34 0403 R The results of this game can be described in the familiar two-by-two matrix that shows the expected value (to Blue) of each of the four strategy pairs.
This is a positive number, so Blue is winning. But Red is still doing better than if it ceased TBM activity altogether. In that case, Blue could always strike and the value of the game to Blue would be 1. Red is not adopting a winning strategy here. Red is adopting a palliative strategy to minimize loss while prolonging the conﬂict. 14 • Of course, this may result in an all new ball game. 36 0403 R The above result implies that increases in Blue counterforce capabilities will tend to drive the optimum Red launch rate down, but boost-phase (and by implication other active and passive defense) improvements will drive it up.
A Simple Game-Theoretic Approach to Suppression of Enemy Defenses and Other Time Critical Target Analyses by Richard Mesic Thomas Hamilton, RAND